People romanticise opening a cafe. It is, in fact, a logistics business with a beverage attached. The cafes that survive in East Africa do so because the founder asked uncomfortable questions early and answered them in the design, the lease, and the hire. Not in marketing later.

Here is the short version of what we walk every Shabaya Limited consulting client through, in the order it matters.

1. Why this neighbourhood, specifically?

Not "Kilimani because it's cool." Not "Westlands because that's where coffee people go." Specifically:

How many residential units within a 10-minute walk?
How many office desks within the same radius?
What's the morning footfall on this side of the street, at 7:30am, on a Wednesday? (Sit there with a counter. Actually count.)
What's the weekend footfall? Different question, same method.

A cafe is a function of its catchment. Catchment is measurable. Measure it.

2. What is the one beverage you're famous for?

Not the menu of 28 drinks. The one beverage. The drink that, if it sold out, people would be annoyed.

The cafes that survive in our market have one signature. A flat white that's actually a flat white. A pour-over from one specific Nyeri estate. A masala chai with a recognisable house spice mix.

If you can't name yours in one sentence, don't sign the lease.

3. What is the lease really costing you?

Kenyan landlords often quote rent in USD with a USD escalation. Look at the small print. Then add:

Service charge (often 30–60% of rent in nicer buildings)
VAT on rent
Parking levies
Security deposit (typically 6 months, sometimes more)
Goodwill or key money (often undisclosed)

The headline number is rarely the real number. Make a spreadsheet of the total monthly obligation for year 1, year 2, year 3. Then pretend revenue is 30% below your forecast and check if the spreadsheet still works.

4. What's your equipment plan for 5 years, not 5 months?

Founders consistently under-spec the espresso machine because it's the biggest single line item. Five years later they're servicing a tired two-group when they actually needed a three-group with volumetric control and pre-infusion.

A few honest rules:

If you expect more than 200 milk drinks a day at peak, you want a three-group.
If your bar runs more than one barista at peak, you want dual boilers and steam wands that don't fight each other.
If your water is hard (Nairobi's mostly is), you want a real water-treatment system from day one. Not a softener pod under the counter.

This is one of the places we lean on our Sanremo dealership. Not because it's our line, but because we can spec correctly for what you'll be five years from now.

5. Who is the head barista, and what do they earn?

The single biggest predictor of a cafe's success in our markets is the head barista's tenure. Not the founder's vision. Not the brand identity. The barista.

Pay them properly. Train them properly. Give them a real career path. Head barista, training lead, second-site supervisor, eventually equity if you can. The cafes that revolve their staff every six months are the cafes that close in eighteen months.

6. What's your fallback when the supply chain hiccups?

Sugar shortage. Milk price spike. The container of cups stuck at Mombasa port for three weeks. These are not edge cases in East Africa. They are Tuesdays.

Have two suppliers for every category. Have one month of inventory for everything that ships in. Have a written substitution plan for menu items that depend on imported ingredients.

7. What does "open" actually look like?

Soft opens fail because nobody planned them. Before you open the doors:

Run a full week of staff-only service at lunch volumes.
Run a friends-and-family weekend at 70% capacity.
Fix every operational issue you find. Repeat.

Only then do you let the public in. The first thirty Google reviews will follow you for two years.

The point

None of this is the romantic part. The romantic part. The latte art, the pour-over bar, the playlist. Is the easy 10%. The other 90% is the lease, the spec, the people, and the spreadsheet.

Get the 90% right and the 10% is a joy. Get the 90% wrong and the 10% won't save you.

If you're at the point where you want a second pair of eyes on yours, come and find us. We'd rather catch the question before you sign the lease. Shabaya Limited

Opening a cafe in East Africa: a no-nonsense checklist